As mid-to-late October arrives, the global cashew market enters a critical period for new-crop supply. Tanzania’s 2026/27 raw cashew nut (RCN) auction season has officially opened with prices above market expectations, lifting overall sentiment for international RCN. Meanwhile, domestic cashew kernel prices at major wholesale markets in China have risen by more than 14% over the past week — against a backdrop of 98% import dependence, cost-side pressure continues to build for processing enterprises.
1. International Market: Tanzanian Auctions Open High, Raw Material Support Strengthens
On October 12, the Masasi region of Tanzania kicked off the 2026/27 raw cashew nut auction season. Initial warehouse-level bids landed in the range of TZS 3,040–3,310 per kilogram, translating to an estimated FOB export price of approximately USD 1,460–1,560 per ton — positioning Tanzanian nuts at the premium end of new-crop quotations among major African producing countries.
According to local warehouse data, approximately 20,000 metric tons of raw nuts have already been received at warehouses in Mtwara and Lindi. Tanzanian official cooperatives have emphasized strict moisture control and storage standards this season to mitigate potential El Niño-related rainfall risks in the southern cashew belt. Expectations of tight high-quality raw material supply are driving up buyer competition for premium lots.
| Origin / Market | Grade | Term | Price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India – New Delhi | W320, conventional | FOB | 7.15 |
| India – New Delhi | W320, organic | FOB | 8.80 |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | WW320 | FOB | 7.17 |
| Vietnam – Hanoi | WW240 | FOB | 8.07 |
| Netherlands – Dordrecht | WW320 | FCA | 5.25 |
2. Domestic Market: Wholesale Average Up 14% Weekly, Import Dependence Remains High
On the domestic front, according to monitoring data from 21Food, as of October 17, the average quoted price for cashew kernels at major Chinese wholesale markets stood at RMB 65 per kilogram, up approximately 14.29% from the previous week. Specifically, the Taiyuan Hexi Agricultural & Sideline Products Market in Shanxi quoted a range of RMB 60–70 per kilogram, while the Xinjiang Jiushengding Fruit Market held steady at RMB 65 per kilogram.
From the consumption side, China is one of the fastest-growing cashew consumption markets globally. Data shows that domestic annual cashew raw material consumption exceeds 800,000 tons, of which approximately 98% relies on imports, primarily from Vietnam and West African countries. In 2025, the domestic cashew kernel market size reached approximately RMB 4.86 billion, up 7.3% year-on-year, with health-focused snack upgrading as the core growth driver.
3. Supply-Demand Dynamics: Processing Margins Under Pressure, Procurement Turns Cautious
The core tension in the current market lies in the spread between raw cashew nut costs and kernel selling prices. Raw material prices at Indian domestic wholesale platforms have climbed sharply in recent weeks, while export-side kernel quotations denominated in euros have remained flat — meaning processing companies’ profit margins are being squeezed.
On the Vietnam side, although Q3 2026 export volumes moderated somewhat from Q2, they remain at historically high levels, reflecting the resilience of global demand. That said, traders are generally adopting a selective procurement strategy: premium whole-kernel quotations remain firm, while broken pieces and lower-grade specifications still offer bargaining room.
4. Market Outlook: Near-Term Consolidation, Cautious Optimism Medium-Term
Overall, cashew kernel prices are likely to remain range-bound over the coming week, with insufficient momentum for a significant move in either direction. Subsequent Tanzanian auction results will serve as the short-term bellwether; if premium lots continue to command high prices, sentiment could shift bullish ahead of the Q4 restocking season.
For importers and roasting companies, industry participants suggest locking in a portion of Q4 through Q1 next year requirements for core grades (WW320/W320, WW240/W240) at current price levels, while maintaining some procurement flexibility to restock once new-crop supply becomes clearer. For processed products with higher broken-piece ratios, the current spread between whole kernels and pieces still offers cost optimization room through recipe adjustment.